Get Ready For Runaway Inflation

[Surveyor1]

A friend of mine just informed me that freight rates have gone crazy.  He said he is paying 9800.00 to ship product from California to the Southeast.  Back before Christmas he was paying 6000.00 for the same load!!!  He said prices went up at Christmas like the always do but they never went back down to normal and the past few weeks prices have already gone up another 1500.00.  To put this increase into everyday terms, that is better than a 63% rate increase in freight!!!  The wholesalers will have to pass this along to the consumers.  These rates will affect ALL items that are carried on semi’s!  Looks like things are getting real interesting...

[aces]

Thanks for that tip, Surveyor!

Besides lumber prices going sky high and cars being in short supply and pricier as a result of the chip shortage, Proctor and Gamble announced a price increase for September.
(Not sure why they gave so much notice, but they did.)  That will allow their competition to follow suit.  My guess is that oil has gone up (just like retail fuel prices) which affects
a wide swath of other prices including food since it all has to be "hauled". 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/procter-gamble-will-raise-prices-in-september-to-fight-higher-commodity-costs.html


https://fortune.com/2021/04/20/lumber-prices-2021-chart-price-of-lumber-wood-costs-latest-update-april-2021-why-is-wood-so-expensive/


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/car-shoppers-should-buckle-up-for-high-prices-and-low-inventory-.html


Then with too many stimulus dollars chasing too few goods, the inflationary rate jumped dramatically in February to approx. 2.8% for one month (not the annual rate
which they claim is still only in the 2% range.)

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce/2021/pce2102



So being stocked already or stocking up where possible is the smart play going forward.

[Surveyor1]

Thanks for the links Aces!  They predict freight rates will continue to climb as well.  The coffee regions in South America are going through a drought and production is off an estimated 25/30% and on top of that our domestic supply is already 20% lower than normal.  Ocean freight is just as crazy as domestic shipping so expect to see coffee prices double in the next few months. 

Not sure who follows the commodity prices but corn is at a 52 week high as is wheat!  So feed will go up so meat will go up.  Anything with flour will go up and anything with high fructose corn syrup will go up...  we are in the middle of a perfect storm and I’m pretty concerned!

[crplhood]

Search any period in history and you'll find a ton of articles predicting hyperinflation, almost every single one of them wrong. Runaway inflation and hyperinflation are caused by nations spending more than they have and printing money to fill those funds. The US has never experience either, even when we boomed into the largest economy in history during WW2 (the CSA hyperinflated during the civil war, but this had minimal impact on the average family since most lived in or supported the subsistence economy).

The US has a heavily diversified economy balancing imports, experts and internal production. Citizen, corporate, and govt activity further balances to control inflation.

I've responded to a similar posit in another post with references.
These articles are fear mongering, and stocking up in response is what truprep (just as an example) wants you to do.

[RWS]

The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!

[crplhood]

The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!

Do you have credible proof of this? Our inflation has arguably been at or lower than projected (3% annual) since the 80s.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp#:~:text=The%20average%20annual%20inflation%20from,end%20of%202018%20was%202.46%25.

Further, our inflation in the last 20 years is nearly half the world average, despite the wars, civil and political upheaval, and the pandemic. This indicates the sheer power and flexibility of our economy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/

[RWS]

The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!

Do you have credible proof of this? Our inflation has arguably been at or lower than projected (3% annual) since the 80s.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp#:~:text=The%20average%20annual%20inflation%20from,end%20of%202018%20was%202.46%25.

Further, our inflation in the last 20 years is nearly half the world average, despite the wars, civil and political upheaval, and the pandemic. This indicates the sheer power and flexibility of our economy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/

Take a look at the last month on this chart in the linked article.  What I see is a straight up movement Doublein the last month!  What will next month bring?  I think that printing money at the rate we are is big trouble!
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp?reloaded=true

https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/lumber-prices-skyrocket-nearly-250-percent-impacts-local-suppliers-and-buyers/

[nj_m715]

shadow stats tracks inflation using a constant set of metrics
the debt clock tracks money creation

[crplhood]

The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!

Do you have credible proof of this? Our inflation has arguably been at or lower than projected (3% annual) since the 80s.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp#:~:text=The%20average%20annual%20inflation%20from,end%20of%202018%20was%202.46%25.

Further, our inflation in the last 20 years is nearly half the world average, despite the wars, civil and political upheaval, and the pandemic. This indicates the sheer power and flexibility of our economy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/

Take a look at the last month on this chart in the linked article.  What I see is a straight up movement Doublein the last month!  What will next month bring?  I think that printing money at the rate we are is big trouble!
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp?reloaded=true

There are spikes all over that chart, and it's still below 3%. There's a high difference between doubling a low single digit and double a tens or hundreds. Scale matters. If it goes up 1% (the dif between feb and march) a month for year, we have fast inflation. Definitely not even runaway inflation then. Plus, we'd need a cause. The US dumped more into the wars than even comes close to current initiatives.

[Surveyor1]

Maybe it’s time to be worried maybe it’s not but in Realville the signs are ominous.  These are not numbers from a “doomsayer article” but by a friend that lives it everyday.

“ Yea the rates always go up at the holidays but they always come down but not this year.  Holiday rates went from around 6000 before Christmas to 8000/8500 during Christmas and stayed there until a few weeks ago and started climbing more.  This past week alone they went from 9000 to 10000.  For example:  the cost to ship a 4lb bag of oranges was .75 before and the cost now is 1.25!  Since we know a business is going to operate on the same margin (let’s say .35%) it’s going to add an additional .18 to the price on top of the .50 in additional freight.  That .68 may not sound like much in the scheme of things but now that 4.00 bag of oranges is 4.68 or 17% higher.  That 17% will be across the board!  A 10 LB bag of sugar at Walmart had already gone from 4.00 to 4.78 or 18% prior to the freight increases.  Now we are looking at adding another 17% on top of that. 

If shirts, shoes, cars and other non-food items go up people can choose not to buy them but food inflation is a different story.  I mentioned the EBT people in the other post but it’s basically anyone on a fixed income such as Social Security!  Food inflation scares the hell out of me because he who controls the food, controls the people!  I’ve prepared for this scenario but the vast majority of the people, especially the poor and fixed income people, are woefully unprepared!😳😢🙏...”

Could be short term could be long term but it’s coming and it’s going to hurt our most vulnerable citizens...

[crplhood]

That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.

[Surveyor1]

That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.

They didn’t raise prices when the rates jumped at the holidays because they always came down except this year...  Time will tell...

[RWS]

That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.

They didn’t raise prices when the rates jumped at the holidays because they always came down except this year...  Time will tell...

Gas prices going up every day for the past few days

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/05/02/gas-prices-continue-to-climb-in-socal-for-9th-day/

[crplhood]

That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.

They didn’t raise prices when the rates jumped at the holidays because they always came down except this year...  Time will tell...

Gas prices going up every day for the past few days

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/05/02/gas-prices-continue-to-climb-in-socal-for-9th-day/

Is not a trend. What's your point?

[Surveyor1]

Not sure but guessing his point is everything is going up?  A wheel has many spokes that makes it function.  The spokes of the current wheel is pointing towards a long inflationary cycle.  How long this cycle continues and how severe this cycle is yet unknown.  All signs are pointing towards a pretty long period and a pretty significant percentage jump in overall inflation.  In past inflationary periods there a few items that came together to cause an uptick.  This time around the big boys showed up to the party all at once and it looks like it’s very possible if not probable for the party to get out of control!  When you see significant gains in agricultural commodity prices, transportation and fuel, manufacturing cost and the cost of raw durable all at once, we have been set up for a pretty significant event.  Throw in the shortage of unskilled labor and the amount of people “choosing” to be on government assistance and the perfect storm is rapidly forming.  Just like my preps, I hope I never need them and I hope I’m wrong regarding the economic indicators but in all honesty, you simply cannot eat hope!