Author Topic: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?  (Read 6095 times)

ChristianJ

COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« on: March 19, 2020, 01:06:58 AM »
Is anyone concerned about this virus pandemic causing a recession or even a depression in the economy? I am hoping against that, but hope is not a strategy. I just can't see for the life of me how closing most businesses doesn't lead to at least a short term recession, if not a full blown depression. Any thoughts?
Christian pastor & theologian

Starlady

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 05:06:16 AM »
Although news media has been talking it up for weeks, I hadn't seen anything from anyone that sounded like they had a brain until late last week.

And now that the subject is out there, economic 'experts' from Yahoo to Business Insider to CNN are talking about how it may happen/will happen/is already here.  With one exception, in my long life, when they start TALKING about it - it happens.   Right now, it sounds like all opinion, with the 'data' being extrapolated from guesses on the effects of this, in order to make the writer sound like they have insight. 

In my opinion the folks who say the various countries 'stimulus' packages will slow/stop/help are wrong.  It didn't work with 2008-9 and I'm not sure these people are understanding that this virus will be around for the fall flu season (unless a miracle happens & a vaccine pops up real quickly) and beyond.  Positivity is a good thing, but pie in the sky dreaming and/or deliberate misinformation is not.   And not just in the US.  Not saying people don't need the help, just that I don't think it's going to stop a recession/depression.  Nor do I believe that once a vaccine does arrive that the world economy is going to come 'roaring back'.   Hundreds of millions of people around the world are going to be out of work for much longer than just a quarantine period and an awful lot of them are going to end up more dependent on their gov't than before.   Encouraged by socialists, this doesn't bode well but I think it's too early to tell if it will turn into a class war or just a long slow recovery with a smaller (again) middle class of those who actually produce things/foods/services.

Where we are now, I think a full blown world wide depression is a good possibility & I'm going be doing a LOT of work on my little farm to stay as independent as I can for as long as I can. 
With all the rumors and non-information we've had about the virus itself, we can only try to stay informed, use our brains and stay ahead of what MIGHT come.  As with our last recession, those living paycheck to paycheck will be a long time coming back even if a vaccine can be put out there before autumn.

My thoughts.   And they may change as the situation does.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." Albert Einstein

ChristianJ

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 05:38:21 AM »
Good comments. Thanks for your input.
Christian pastor & theologian

HogJowlHomestead

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 06:19:44 AM »
We are far past recession as of writing this dow is down 30+ percent. But more importantly the VIX is through the roof, there is a massive dollar squeeze and commodities dumping. Agree completely with starlady. This is now our moment in time, we are past 08/09 we have 10x the debt load. Our kids will learn about this even if it got fixed today.

It is my opinion that this is going to kill the dollar, there is a huge liquidity issue, the dollar keeps rallying and the fed has allready pumped trillions into the repo. What insanity....  you know 10 years ago there was rumors that helicopter money was the last resort and i scoffed at that possibility, But here it is.

Its as if sand has been unleashed into the gears of my shop, what a quiet week. Wheres my customers, there quarantined or to afraid to spend money. Im not worried about the virus as i am the coming fall out and likely inflation.
Psalms 127:3-5

Abigayle

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2020, 10:35:16 AM »
Hog Jowls, you are absolutely right.  Pretty soon, they will be charging us to keep our money is the bank.  There is no safe haven.  Gold usually goes up and even it and silver are in the gutter. How will payments be made to retirement funds, if there is no gain on money?  They can't keep printing worthless paper much longer.
Ariel

Starlady

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2020, 11:06:07 AM »
Geez, Abigayle, don't SAY that, LOL!

People were saying it in 2009-13 and they kept on doing it.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." Albert Einstein

nj_m715

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2020, 11:16:53 AM »
gold and silver didn't go up in 2008. the price is controlled by the paper market.
traders need to sell paper gold to raise cash or as stops are triggered, causing more selling.

in the real world, silver is sold out everywhere you look and premiums are huge. best I can find is 1.50$ over spot on generic bars. but there wasn't much left. maples have a 40% premium, eagles are higher, if you can even find them

I've been looking for silver, but I think prices will continue to fall until something changes
some unprecedented intervention or until the world returns to business as usual

I had some cash in my ira, I bought some oil at 30$ and added more today.
I'll keep buying all the way down
20$ oil is crazy cheap and can pop back up any time
just need a rumor of war or opec nonsense

8greenbeans

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2020, 04:11:44 PM »
My thoughts pretty much go right along with Starlady's. I'll add in the changing climate/crop losses from the beginning of the solar minimum (and continuation henceforth) will just keep it charging right along. I've been working toward as much self-suffuciency as possible for these very types of things.

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ChristianJ

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2020, 04:45:46 PM »
Thanks y'all. I don't follow the market TOO closely, but as I understand it, it was overvalued or too bullish. Again I am not an expert in this. But I was wondering what would correct it. I thought it might be something gradual, maybe fallout from whoever wins the election later in the year, or the housing market adjusting for some reason or the other. This virus is truly a black swan event.
Christian pastor & theologian

Gunner

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2020, 01:26:50 AM »
Sickness.... Market failure.... earthquake in Idaho.... Hollywood screen writers didn't even try to squeeze that much in one movie/series.....  I think back to watching two things in particular that fit where things are going right now.... (#1)-- the Movie CONTAGION   and  (#2)-- the NAT GEO Special "AMERICAN BLACKOUT"  at the moment we seem to be dealing with one, and the other is looming on the horizon.... with everyone on lockdown, whos going to keep the lights on?
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RWS

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Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2020, 06:23:20 AM »
Everything is lovely.  Stores are still open and the bank drive thru is open.  It won't get much worse before it gets better.  Then  when people start to figure out that our paper money is worthless the SHTF.  Currency will be gold, silver and barter.  You need to have your gardening skills up to speed by then with your own seed stash.  Digital currency and one world government will take over.  You will be their slave.  Buying & selling (digitally) will not be allowed for those without credentials.  Want to pay your electric bill?  It's digital.  As old as I am, I don't expect to see these coming times.

ChristianJ

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2020, 02:47:39 PM »
Everything is lovely.  Stores are still open and the bank drive thru is open.  It won't get much worse before it gets better.  Then  when people start to figure out that our paper money is worthless the SHTF.  Currency will be gold, silver and barter.  You need to have your gardening skills up to speed by then with your own seed stash.  Digital currency and one world government will take over.  You will be their slave.  Buying & selling (digitally) will not be allowed for those without credentials.  Want to pay your electric bill?  It's digital.  As old as I am, I don't expect to see these coming times.
That is the endgame, I think. The question is how far we are from it, and if that's something we'll see in our lifetime. Maybe, maybe not.

I did read somewhere about a loaf of bread costing a day's pay, and a mark needed to buy or sell.
Christian pastor & theologian

ProGeek

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2020, 05:11:34 PM »
ChristianJ, I'm a bit more gloomy. I thought a week ago that if this did end on Easter, we could recover quickly. Now they say, maybe May 1. I think by May 1 or later we have destroyed our economy. There will be a depression, a world wide bad one. On top of that, all the cash they are pumping out will cause hyper inflation. A depression with hyper inflation is not typical. The depression should cause deflation. The world monetary system could collapse and governments fail. This could bring the rise of strong men promising to fix things creating new dictatorships and possible war over resources. Then again, maybe not. Fun times. :)
If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.

Abigayle

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2020, 06:32:46 PM »
It has to be bad, we were only in dept on trillion after three wars, into the 80's.  We thought that was a horrible mess, and now look at us.  Since we live in a world economy (like it or not, damn 3-M...) all the weakness will be bouncing off from one country to another and back again.  I don't see the world getting it's feet back underneath itself.  We have become like the guy  who wears all his money on his back.  Everyone looks at him and envies what he has...all that bling...but he is one paycheck away from going under. Printing money in the basement won't help.  All we can do is prepare.  I wish I was ten years younger, so I could achieve in a day what I used to do.  Put my watermelon and cantaloupe seedlings in the ground today, along with more winter squash.  I even planted my two worse looking tomato plants, for a little something to share with the idiots that just stand around with their mouths open....  Sorry, but at times like this, people that are not preparing to someone take care of themselves, tick me off a bit.

ProGeek

Re: COVID-19 causing Recession/Depression?
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2020, 08:45:40 AM »
I saw the story on Tucker Carlson Thursday when the FL Em Mgmt guy said 3M was selling masks to other countries and not filling his order he placed a month ago. I said to my wife, I hope Trump see this, he'll blow a gasket. I guess he was because he went hard after them yesterday.

I try to stay positive about the economy coming back, but the key is to get masks and testing so we can get back to work ASAP. We can't stay closed past the end of this month or most small businesses will not survive. There will not be jobs to go back to. The gov can't pump money into the system and it not have a negative effect. We've been doing that for too long already. It WILL break at some point on a global scale.
If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.

 

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