Southeastern Preppers Network
Prepping => Economic => Topic started by: Surveyor1 on April 19, 2021, 03:29:28 PM
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A friend of mine just informed me that freight rates have gone crazy. He said he is paying 9800.00 to ship product from California to the Southeast. Back before Christmas he was paying 6000.00 for the same load!!! He said prices went up at Christmas like the always do but they never went back down to normal and the past few weeks prices have already gone up another 1500.00. To put this increase into everyday terms, that is better than a 63% rate increase in freight!!! The wholesalers will have to pass this along to the consumers. These rates will affect ALL items that are carried on semi’s! Looks like things are getting real interesting...
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Thanks for that tip, Surveyor!
Besides lumber prices going sky high and cars being in short supply and pricier as a result of the chip shortage, Proctor and Gamble announced a price increase for September.
(Not sure why they gave so much notice, but they did.) That will allow their competition to follow suit. My guess is that oil has gone up (just like retail fuel prices) which affects
a wide swath of other prices including food since it all has to be "hauled".
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/procter-gamble-will-raise-prices-in-september-to-fight-higher-commodity-costs.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/procter-gamble-will-raise-prices-in-september-to-fight-higher-commodity-costs.html)
https://fortune.com/2021/04/20/lumber-prices-2021-chart-price-of-lumber-wood-costs-latest-update-april-2021-why-is-wood-so-expensive/ (https://fortune.com/2021/04/20/lumber-prices-2021-chart-price-of-lumber-wood-costs-latest-update-april-2021-why-is-wood-so-expensive/)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/car-shoppers-should-buckle-up-for-high-prices-and-low-inventory-.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/car-shoppers-should-buckle-up-for-high-prices-and-low-inventory-.html)
Then with too many stimulus dollars chasing too few goods, the inflationary rate jumped dramatically in February to approx. 2.8% for one month (not the annual rate
which they claim is still only in the 2% range.)
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce/2021/pce2102 (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce/2021/pce2102)
So being stocked already or stocking up where possible is the smart play going forward.
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Thanks for the links Aces! They predict freight rates will continue to climb as well. The coffee regions in South America are going through a drought and production is off an estimated 25/30% and on top of that our domestic supply is already 20% lower than normal. Ocean freight is just as crazy as domestic shipping so expect to see coffee prices double in the next few months.
Not sure who follows the commodity prices but corn is at a 52 week high as is wheat! So feed will go up so meat will go up. Anything with flour will go up and anything with high fructose corn syrup will go up... we are in the middle of a perfect storm and I’m pretty concerned!
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Search any period in history and you'll find a ton of articles predicting hyperinflation, almost every single one of them wrong. Runaway inflation and hyperinflation are caused by nations spending more than they have and printing money to fill those funds. The US has never experience either, even when we boomed into the largest economy in history during WW2 (the CSA hyperinflated during the civil war, but this had minimal impact on the average family since most lived in or supported the subsistence economy).
The US has a heavily diversified economy balancing imports, experts and internal production. Citizen, corporate, and govt activity further balances to control inflation.
I've responded to a similar posit in another post with references.
These articles are fear mongering, and stocking up in response is what truprep (just as an example) wants you to do.
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The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!
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The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!
Do you have credible proof of this? Our inflation has arguably been at or lower than projected (3% annual) since the 80s.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp#:~:text=The%20average%20annual%20inflation%20from,end%20of%202018%20was%202.46%25.
Further, our inflation in the last 20 years is nearly half the world average, despite the wars, civil and political upheaval, and the pandemic. This indicates the sheer power and flexibility of our economy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/
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The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!
Do you have credible proof of this? Our inflation has arguably been at or lower than projected (3% annual) since the 80s.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp#:~:text=The%20average%20annual%20inflation%20from,end%20of%202018%20was%202.46%25.
Further, our inflation in the last 20 years is nearly half the world average, despite the wars, civil and political upheaval, and the pandemic. This indicates the sheer power and flexibility of our economy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/
Take a look at the last month on this chart in the linked article. What I see is a straight up movement Doublein the last month! What will next month bring? I think that printing money at the rate we are is big trouble!
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp?reloaded=true
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/lumber-prices-skyrocket-nearly-250-percent-impacts-local-suppliers-and-buyers/
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shadow stats tracks inflation using a constant set of metrics
the debt clock tracks money creation
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The way the US is just printing money with no end in sight can only lead to inflation and we are seeing it starting already!
Do you have credible proof of this? Our inflation has arguably been at or lower than projected (3% annual) since the 80s.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp#:~:text=The%20average%20annual%20inflation%20from,end%20of%202018%20was%202.46%25.
Further, our inflation in the last 20 years is nearly half the world average, despite the wars, civil and political upheaval, and the pandemic. This indicates the sheer power and flexibility of our economy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/
Take a look at the last month on this chart in the linked article. What I see is a straight up movement Doublein the last month! What will next month bring? I think that printing money at the rate we are is big trouble!
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp?reloaded=true
There are spikes all over that chart, and it's still below 3%. There's a high difference between doubling a low single digit and double a tens or hundreds. Scale matters. If it goes up 1% (the dif between feb and march) a month for year, we have fast inflation. Definitely not even runaway inflation then. Plus, we'd need a cause. The US dumped more into the wars than even comes close to current initiatives.
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Maybe it’s time to be worried maybe it’s not but in Realville the signs are ominous. These are not numbers from a “doomsayer article” but by a friend that lives it everyday.
“ Yea the rates always go up at the holidays but they always come down but not this year. Holiday rates went from around 6000 before Christmas to 8000/8500 during Christmas and stayed there until a few weeks ago and started climbing more. This past week alone they went from 9000 to 10000. For example: the cost to ship a 4lb bag of oranges was .75 before and the cost now is 1.25! Since we know a business is going to operate on the same margin (let’s say .35%) it’s going to add an additional .18 to the price on top of the .50 in additional freight. That .68 may not sound like much in the scheme of things but now that 4.00 bag of oranges is 4.68 or 17% higher. That 17% will be across the board! A 10 LB bag of sugar at Walmart had already gone from 4.00 to 4.78 or 18% prior to the freight increases. Now we are looking at adding another 17% on top of that.
If shirts, shoes, cars and other non-food items go up people can choose not to buy them but food inflation is a different story. I mentioned the EBT people in the other post but it’s basically anyone on a fixed income such as Social Security! Food inflation scares the hell out of me because he who controls the food, controls the people! I’ve prepared for this scenario but the vast majority of the people, especially the poor and fixed income people, are woefully unprepared!😳😢🙏...”
Could be short term could be long term but it’s coming and it’s going to hurt our most vulnerable citizens...
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That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.
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That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.
They didn’t raise prices when the rates jumped at the holidays because they always came down except this year... Time will tell...
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That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.
They didn’t raise prices when the rates jumped at the holidays because they always came down except this year... Time will tell...
Gas prices going up every day for the past few days
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/05/02/gas-prices-continue-to-climb-in-socal-for-9th-day/
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That term is very important. A spike will often drop, but a slope becomes normal... then the corporations dont drop the price as the baseline drops to widen profits. Boom. New norm.
They didn’t raise prices when the rates jumped at the holidays because they always came down except this year... Time will tell...
Gas prices going up every day for the past few days
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/05/02/gas-prices-continue-to-climb-in-socal-for-9th-day/
Is not a trend. What's your point?
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Not sure but guessing his point is everything is going up? A wheel has many spokes that makes it function. The spokes of the current wheel is pointing towards a long inflationary cycle. How long this cycle continues and how severe this cycle is yet unknown. All signs are pointing towards a pretty long period and a pretty significant percentage jump in overall inflation. In past inflationary periods there a few items that came together to cause an uptick. This time around the big boys showed up to the party all at once and it looks like it’s very possible if not probable for the party to get out of control! When you see significant gains in agricultural commodity prices, transportation and fuel, manufacturing cost and the cost of raw durable all at once, we have been set up for a pretty significant event. Throw in the shortage of unskilled labor and the amount of people “choosing” to be on government assistance and the perfect storm is rapidly forming. Just like my preps, I hope I never need them and I hope I’m wrong regarding the economic indicators but in all honesty, you simply cannot eat hope!
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/world-food-prices-soar-april-fears-social-unrest-mount
30.7% YoY jump
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Heard on WSB radio today that lack of workers are partly driving shortages like copper and lumber and other commodities. So until the federal add on unemployment benefit to state payments, it will continue. Until lately there has apparently been a loophole in having to certify you are looking for work. Apparently that could close soon.
Florida's governor is likely to be the 1at to refuse the federal unemployment supplemental benefit to induce more folks to get back to work.
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Heard on WSB radio today that lack of workers are partly driving shortages like copper and lumber and other commodities. So until the federal add on unemployment benefit to state payments, it will continue. Until lately there has apparently been a loophole in having to certify you are looking for work. Apparently that could close soon.
Florida's governor is likely to be the 1at to refuse the federal unemployment supplemental benefit to induce more folks to get back to work.
So far 2 states, Montana and SC have announced they are ending the Federal supplemental unemployment at the end of June.
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Heard on WSB radio today that lack of workers are partly driving shortages like copper and lumber and other commodities. So until the federal add on unemployment benefit to state payments, it will continue. Until lately there has apparently been a loophole in having to certify you are looking for work. Apparently that could close soon.
Florida's governor is likely to be the 1at to refuse the federal unemployment supplemental benefit to induce more folks to get back to work.
So far 2 states, Montana and SC have announced they are ending the Federal supplemental unemployment at the end of June.
And Florida is considering doing the same. Looks like it is time for each of us to reach out to our state representatives.
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This morning's CPI was a whopper!
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
"The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982."
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The inflation chart posted earlier on this thread has been updated to include Apirl.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp?reloaded=true
If that isn't straight up inflation, I don't know what is !!
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I bought this trailer in march:
Description Rate Qty Line Total
8.5x20 Ft Enclosed Cargo Trailer
1 $5,120.00
now it's 6,550$
https://www.plainoltrailers.com/product/8-5x20-trailer/
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Have a friend who owns a trust plant . when that submit a bid its good for 72 hrs . they need to lock in lumber prices for the job . if you think its bad to buy a few 2x4s think what its like when you get 3 to 5 trailer loads a week.
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bought this fence in march for 99$
actually 90$ with discount for opening an account
now it's 129$
https://www.tractorsupply.com/tsc/product/red-brand-welded-wire-60-in-x-100-ft?cm_vc=-10005
30% price inflation in 2 months, seems normal and transitory - nothing to see here
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Some chicken feeds up 35-40% since March.
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This morning's CPI was a whopper!
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
"The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982."
Hey Aces, May just said “hey April hold my beer!” I love it when the media uses terms like “hotter than expected inflation print this morning.” Where the heck have these people been for the past 8 months? It’s going to get much worse.
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Sad but true, Surveyor!
Thanks for the follow up.
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well, my 5,100$ trailer is now selling for 7,650$ https://www.plainoltrailers.com/product/8-5x20-trailer/
and there is a 6 month, "maybe longer" wait
how high does it need to go before it becomes "inflation"?
btw, I'm still waiting for my door that was to be delivered 3 weeks ago
nothing to see here, just normal and transitory I'm sure.
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https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp?reloaded=true
Just wait until the June numbers are updated. This is the same chart as earlier link posting.
BREAKING: Biden/Obama Economy Sees Goods Prices Increase 6.5% Since Last Year – The Highest Increase since 1982
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/06/breaking-biden-obama-economy-sees-goods-prices-increase-6-5-since-last-year-highest-increase-since-1982/
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New load of feed at the feed store . they paid $1.75 to $2.00 a bag more wholesale on everything that came in so.......
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New load of feed at the feed store . they paid $1.75 to $2.00 a bag more wholesale on everything that came in so.......
Probably $.75 of that was extra freight, the rest material cost, labor cost and extra margin cost.
Going to get a lot worse sooner rather than later! Freight cost have stayed crazy high with no end in sight! Buckle up!
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I’ve made a few observation over the past month. First, the food in the cafeteria at work is more expensive over last month. My usual breakfast there (I get the same thing every time) was costing me $2.80. That exact same plate is now $3.20. Walmart and Commissary have been holding steady with canned vegetable cost, but I’ve noticed our local grocery (independent), the Food Depot up the road and Freshway have raised their canned vegetables from 5 to 10 cents per can. The selection of canned vegetables is very limited right now. There are two items that have been on my list for 6 weeks. I could get the brand name, but your talking 50 cents per can vs. $1.09 a can. I too have noticed the price of trailers going up. I had planned on replacing my 12’ trailer, but have decided to keep it after seeing prices. Overall, Walmart seems to holding steady with most items (although flushable wipes and vitamins have gone up a little bit). Smaller chains and independent stores can’t absorb wholesale increases so easily.
I’ve also noticed that mainstream news outlets are reporting increased inflation, but are downplaying it.
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My Walmart has not held back on price increases! Milk is $3.29 a gallon, up .30 since 3 weeks ago. All the dairy items, their brand of frozen veggies, ice cream, sugar, rice and beans all up.
What's killing me is the poultry feed! My local TSC says Purina is backed up on everything, yet I can drive 50 miles to another TSC and get all I want - at the higher prices, but now I have to add gas to it. I'm going to have to pare back the flock and get more serious about growing more of my own feed.
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My Walmart has not held back on price increases! Milk is $3.29 a gallon, up .30 since 3 weeks ago. All the dairy items, their brand of frozen veggies, ice cream, sugar, rice and beans all up.
What's killing me is the poultry feed! My local TSC says Purina is backed up on everything, yet I can drive 50 miles to another TSC and get all I want - at the higher prices, but now I have to add gas to it. I'm going to have to pare back the flock and get more serious about growing more of my own feed.
What you need is a prepper to move into that 10 acre farm down the road and plant a field full of corn!
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From another group's feed:
Food Business News:
The price of all wheat was forecast at $6.50 per bu in 2021-22 (beginning June 1, 2021), up 29% from $5.05 this year and up 42% from $4.58 last year.
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Car and truck rental up 88% from last year. Gas up 46.4% Moving cost up 17% Furniture up 10.9%. Used cars are up 45.2 (includes trucks). Laundry appliances 29%, airfares, 24.6%. Bacon 8.4%, whole milk 7.5%. Now that I don't have chickens, eggs are about double in cost. With feed being sooo high, I can see why. We are still planning on having a few chickens. I am considering aa few S[eckled Susses and Americanas. These would be new breeds for us.
Lumber is coming off it's high, but this week when we were pricing out stones and boards to build a few raised beds, we felt everything was still pretty high. Gone are the days of do it yourself and save a lot of bucks...
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I have noticed lately that electronic equipment is getting scarce on store shelves. I want to build an off grid cabin, but here is the problem. Solar supplies are becoming less and less available, so what to do? The only thing I know to do is design now and purchase what I can and try to acquire a complete system. In other words, have the complete solar system in hand before the contractor even starts. That's crazy ! It is the times we are living in.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/supply-chains-brace-collapse-port-la-fears-repeat-shipping-nightmare-china-locks-down
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bought this fence in march for 99$
actually 90$ with discount for opening an account
now it's 129$
https://www.tractorsupply.com/tsc/product/red-brand-welded-wire-60-in-x-100-ft?cm_vc=-10005
30% price inflation in 2 months, seems normal and transitory - nothing to see here
149$ now, almost double what I paid in the spring
must be due to the fence shortage? cant be inflation from printing trillions
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Let's Go Brandon!
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/prices-climb-fastest-pace-1982-it-could-have-been-worse
still just a transitory right wing conspiracy to derail the brandon administration?
but hey, fuel is down 2 cents after climbing 1.50$ I can add it to the 12cents I saved on hotdogs in july
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My wife came home from the local grocery store and proclaimed "Cubed steak is $10.99 a pound".
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Breaking: March Inflation Rate Soars to 8.5% Under Joe Biden
The 8.5% CPI was greater than the expected 8.4%. This is the highest inflation number since 1981.
Consumer prices are rising to their highest rates in 41 years.
The consumer price index surged 1.2% last month, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. The CPI advanced 0.8% in February.
Gasoline prices on average soared to an all-time high of $4.33 per gallon in March, according to AAA. While gasoline was the main driver of inflation last month, food and services such as rental housing also made strong contributions.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/04/breaking-march-inflation-rate-soars-8-5-joe-biden/
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Soon bought a standing rib roast for Thor's birthday today. At 6.99 lb (Publics) yesterday, it was the cheapest steak around. We will just slice it thick and grill it. Can't remember who pointed this out, but it is a nice treat for the four of us tonight. We are so grateful that we can sit down to a nice steak dinner. We feel a bit a guilt, with food shortages world wide. When I was in grad school, I stopped it for happy hour with a girlfriend, as you could buy a drink and eat a lot of freebies at the food bar, set up for that occasion. Then we went to class. It is a wonder that we were successful. So, moving right along.... Two couples came of carrying to go boxes and I could smell the meat...I just looked at my friend and said the word "meat". Guess you had to be there, but we had not eaten a steak in a very long time. During the inflationary period of the 80's, many went without meat. I was very lucky to get a job teaching in that area, since there were hiring freezes at the time. Also parked my car some distance from the college and walked, just to save a few bucks. One can prepare some, but runaway inflation still turns around and bites you one way or another.
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Well my gas prices have certainly gone wayyyyy down! Thanks Biden, that release from the Strategic Oil Reserves is really helping us Americans!🤦♂️🤦♂️ You simply cannot make this up! Like I said in an earlier post, this is by design. I hope they fry in the midterms, not that the GOP is much better but at least they try to cover up the fact that they are trying to destroy America…
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-bidens-emergency-spr-release-heading-europe