Solar Flare Risk Increases

[Abigayle]

There is a huge sunspot on the other side of the sun.  It is so powerful, that it apparently it is so large that it is affecting the way the sun vibrates.  This is from spaceweather.com. It is moving rapidly.  I don't pretend to have a lot of knowledge about this kind of stuff, but this was expected to be a bad year for potential solar flares.  Quebec Ca., Eastern portion had a blackout caused by just this sort of thing.
A few years ago, when I was prepping, my medical chest did not include a large about of meds or even cleaners for a pandemic.  Sometimes, its the unexpected that can bite us in the butt when we are not looking.
What a perfect time for China to hit us and blame it on the sun....ya, that too....
I doubt that China is going to wait to throw something our way, until we have a weaker president in office... B. B & Bs.
Just thought that if you didn't have enough to worry about today, I could help you out.

[Surveyor1]

Will be interesting to see the results of the data once analyzed by Europes Solar Orbiter…

[Abigayle]

Will be interesting to see the results of the data once analyzed by Europes Solar Orbiter…

. Please explain....thanks
I went to EarthSky, where they have the current view of the sun's activity.  If you have never viewed this, or even if you have, it is a worthwhile sight.  Excellent View of the current activity.

[RWS]

Well, if there is a solar flare, we will see how the starlink is effected.

[Abigayle]

Funny R.W.S. If it were to happen, I am thinking you will have more on your plate than Star Link. Hmmm, maybe you will be entertained and we will be reading all our "how to" books....

[RWS]

That's the thing about lightning, solar flares & EMP.  You take all the precautions you can but you just never know if it is enough. 

Years ago I put up a 125ft Rohn tower and mounted a vertical out the top.  On Monday I went off to work for the week.  I called home that night and the wife said my antenna was toast.  Lightning had struck my new tower.  She got out the binoculars and confirmed the antenna was toast.

Ever notice a cell tower.  The lightning rod is out the top and the antennas are side mounted.  Less chance of a lightning strike.

Needless to say, I put a lightning rod out the top and side mounted the new antennas (plural).  I used a pair of 4 element beams and pointed one North and one South as I was using them for a 2 meter digital repeater.

[Surveyor1]

Will be interesting to see the results of the data once analyzed by Europes Solar Orbiter…

. Please explain....thanks
I went to EarthSky, where they have the current view of the sun's activity.  If you have never viewed this, or even if you have, it is a worthwhile sight.  Excellent View of the current activity.

It was in the article on Space Weather.  It’s a satellite the Europeans launched that is too tough for me to explain so I’ll just share a link…

https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter

[Abigayle]

Looks like the most resent feedback was from 2020.  Other sites seem to agree that the solar maximum will occur sooner than expected, that being the end of this year.
Criticism of the earlier predictions of 2025 are based on old models not being updates, as weather patterns change.
This is related to solar flares, since we have already seen more X flares this year, then all of last year.  This is true of all the smaller flares as well and each of those has been stronger.  It appears the changes stay in play for approximately two year.
I found the articles on the web that explain how forecasters can be so wrong, to be of interest. I will try to be more understanding of major errors in long term forecasts.
Anyway, can't worry, just prepare for the unexpected, along with the expected.

[RWS]

NOAA WARNING: “Severe Geomagnetic Storm” Forecast to Hit Earth as Early as Today – Power Grid Blackouts, Internet Outages, and Supercharged Northern Lights Possible
A G4 severe geomagnetic storm is forecast to impact Earth later today, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This marks the first time in nearly two decades that officials have warned such an event could occur.

NOAA decided to issue a watch for the storm after forecasters observed multiple earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME’s) earlier this week.
The agency notes these earth-directed coronal mass ejections could arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024, in what they call an “unusual event.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/noaa-warning-severe-geomagnetic-storm-forecast-hit-earth/

[Surveyor1]

It actually released 6 flares and the strongest was an X4.  No Carrington Event but still pretty strong.  In my opinion it could be stronger but .gov won’t say a word about it…. We are on our on as usual 🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤔…

[Surveyor1]

Space weather.com has now changed it to a G4 but upped the chance of X class to 75%.  The Aurora watch is on…. Since I’ve been following space weather this is the first time I’ve seen a 75% chance of X class and the aurora map is also brighter than I’ve seen?

https://spaceweather.com/

[8greenbeans]

I haven't read everything as yet but there are a couple of good channels to follow about this very thing... these are on YouTube. I advise you to watch the past week's worth of videos to get a better understanding of exactly what is going on and why. Much of what is happening concerning the sunspots affecting us as much as they are (when typically they shouldn't) is due to the magnetic pole reversal happening. These reversals and grand solar minimums and such all take a lot of time.... a blink in the big scheme of things but 2-3 decades in our time.

Suspicious Observers --- is my favorite - for a thorough but down to earth report daily that rarely exceeds 3 minutes. Only this past week has he made educational videos that are longer.
Oppenheimer Ranch Project --- Diamond is annoying to me but his information is decent.
Magnetic Reversal News --- these videos are longer.

Hope these help!